New Poll Suggests The Canadian Republic Is Prescient

Do these results look familiar to you?

The Canadian Press:

Stephen Harper may be closing in on his coveted majority despite being plagued by a series of miscues and bad news during the first week of the federal election campaign.

A new poll suggests the Conservatives have opened up a commanding 15-point lead over the Liberals, with 41 per cent of respondents supporting the governing party.

Typically, 40 per cent is sufficient to win a majority of seats in the House of Commons.

According to The Canadian Press-Harris Decima survey, the Liberals stood at 26 per cent, the NDP at 14 per cent, the Greens at nine and the Bloc Quebecois at eight.

Compare that with my predictions.

These numbers should settle down a little after the campaign gets ramped up and a few more Liberal voters defect to Jack Layton.

So far, so good.

Election Predictions

Sorry it's been so quiet 'round these parts lately. To get us back in the swing of things I thought I'd offer some official Canadian Republic election predictions.

What's on the line? Well, that would be the very most precious commodity of all: pride.

Popular Vote

2006 Results

Tories: 36.3%

Grits: 30.2%

NDP: 17.5%

Bloc: 10.5%

Green: 4.5%

2008 Predictions

Tories: 39%

Grits: 25%

NDP: 19%

Bloc: 9%

Green: 7%

Seats In Parliament

2006 Results

Tories: 124

Grits: 103

NDP: 29

Bloc: 51

Green: 0

2008 Predictions

Tories: 135-140

Grits: 78-85

NDP: 32-35

Bloc: 45-50

Green: 2-4

Major Changes

Although it probably won't be hugely reflected in the popular vote, the NDP should see some major gains when the dust settles. Given the number of ridings in the last federal election which saw narrow Liberal victories (e.g. Toronto, Vancouver, etc), the NDP should have very little trouble picking up a handful of new seats.

Quebec - ever the battleground province - should finally allow Harper some gains as Grit and Bloc influence wavers in key ridings. A Mulroney-esque breakthrough is highly unlikely, but the Conservatives should still forge crucial inroads beyond Quebec City which could very definitely place them in striking distance of a majority for the next election.


I know my Tory predictions are a little conservative (pardon the awful joke). I've been talking to a lot of hopefuls who are predicting a majority this election. I'm very wary, however, of underestimating the power of strategic voting on the left. Only time is going to tell just how important a factor it turns out to be.

If you folks have any special insights I overlooked or want to share some guesses of your own, post 'em in the comments.